We are all God’s children and
Christmas reminds us that we are loved and cherished by God Our Father, even
though we often forget the sacrifices He has made on our behalf. Looking back at 2012, much has happened that
reflects our collective selfishness and forgetfulness. As a nation we seem to be turning our backs
on the Truth as revealed by God. He has
revealed many truths in the very nature of life and of our bodies, but somehow
we no longer believe these truths.
With five states that now approve of gay marriage, several are also
promoting gay marriage openly in public schools. In Massachusetts the state approved
curriculum states that gay marriage is “natural and wholesome.” Parents who objected to this, lost their
appeal in court to have their children excused from this indoctrination. Although the very nature of our bodies
demonstrates the untruth of this teaching, it is the official law of the land
and all children will be taught what is lawful, even when the law is a lie.
2012 culminated in a contentious
election that represented the choice between two competing and opposite
ideologies. One party advocated a
culture of death which promoted abortion even to the point of forcing employers
and taxpayers to fund them. As the
party in control of government, they also refused to enforce the duly passed
laws protecting marriage, and adopted support for gay marriage as part of their
party platform. The other party
officially opposed abortion while supporting marriage and advocating economic
reforms, but lost the election. Our
nation has chosen to continue the course it is on, which will bring with it the
continual decline of birth rates, putting us on the same path already tread by
Japan and much of Europe.
In every country that has adopted
these policies which depress birth rates, economies fail. Japan is in dire straits now as a result of
decades of declining birthrates which have devastated their economy. This isn’t just my opinion. Here’s a quote from a stock analyst, published
in an investing newsletter:
“Japan is literally dying. It's
got the worst demographics ever recorded. The number of senior citizens, or
"silvers" as they are called because of their silver- colored hair,
is growing faster than both the number of new workers needed to support them
and the number of children needed to replace them. Between the low birth rate and aging
population, Japan will lose more than 33% of its population by century's end. Japan has experienced a tremendous shift in
education, how young people are employed, and a dramatic polarization of
younger versus older members of their society. Haves and have-nots are not the
issue. What seems to be at stake is the
sentiment that the older generation has had it all, while leaving tremendous
burdens to the younger generation that they didn't sign up for. With declining birth rates, Japan is now
expected to drop from 2.8 workers supporting each retiree in 2008 to 1.5 by
2050.
Of course, with the fiscal
cliff approaching, the tax debate is now front and center. But lower birth
rates also mean much of the debate is misdirected. It's not so much a matter of taxing the rich
as it is how we deal with declining revenues. No matter how you cut the moral
debate about taxing the rich or having more people pay in, fewer workers will
mean future tax receipts go down. And
that, in turn, means there will be even less to spend when the rapidly graying
population needs it the most.” (The Oxford Club, Dec 2012)
Japan has run up outrageous
debt they cannot repay and they are the most indebted nation in the world. Their combined government, corporate, and
private debt now exceeds 500% of GDP. Their stock index, the Nikkei, is down
74% from what it was in 1989, and their economy shrank another 3.5% just in the
last quarter. While their elderly population
continues to expand, the number of workers is shrinking and no amount of
government taxation and spending can fix these problems. Japan just elected its sixth prime minister
in 6 years and he ran on a platform of more government spending to stimulate
their shrinking economy, but this will only exacerbate their already
intractable problems.
This is where the USA is headed
because we continue to spend 40% more money than our government takes in, and
at the same time, we seem to have embraced policies that discourage tradition
marriage and families… the only source of new life. The Oxford Club letter summed it up this way
in the headline for their article: “If you don’t have new children, you cannot
replace your population.” This has
serious long term consequences for our economy because fewer consumers means
fewer jobs and lower tax revenue collected by the government. For more than 100 years we’ve been hearing
about the dangers of excessive population growth, and apparently millions of
people have bought into this misguided advice.
The real reason worldwide population has grown has nothing to do with
birthrates, and everything to do with increased longevity.
Here’s the problem in a
nutshell: At the end of World War II
there were 42 workers for every person collecting Social Security, and Medicare
did not even exist. In 1960, the worker to beneficiary ratio
of the social security program was 5.1 workers to one person receiving
benefits. In 2009, that figure fell to
3.0 workers per beneficiary. According
to the Social Security Administration's Trustees report, that number will fall
to 2.2 workers per beneficiary by 2030. But with birth rates falling, that
number could be even lower than expected. There are implications in
terms of health care rationing, too. It
will affect home care, assisted living, traffic, mobility, technology, and
taxes. Especially taxes...
We cannot tax and spend our way
to prosperity. There simply are not,
and will never be, enough tax payers to fund all our existing entitlement
programs, especially with our declining birth rates and 47% of American workers
paying no federal income tax at all. The
tax increases called for by the party in the White House offers only a modest
reduction in the rate of growth in our national debt. The chart below shows federal tax revenue in
green and the effect of the tax increase in blue. The red area represents the amount of spending
that exceeds our federal revenue. Most
of the spending associated with Obamacare begins in 2014 when the Medicaid
expansion and subsidies for State Exchanges begin. With 10,000 baby boomers reaching Medicare and
Social Security eligibility age every single day, our national debt will bury
us, even with huge tax increases, assuming that these taxes will actually be
collected.
2013 will be an interesting year. Not only will congress have to deal with the “fiscal
cliff,” but we’ll face another battle over increasing the federal debt limit
again in Spring. Sadly, our problems
are far more complex than simply trying to balance a budget. Our nation faces a crisis that is rooted in
morality. In our enthusiasm to cast off
traditional morality in the name of personal freedom, we are suppressing
religious freedom and simultaneously committing national infanticide, at the
very time when we need growth in the population of our productive members of
society. Rather than admit to this
dilemma, we continue on the path that has been disastrous to Japan, and has
already begun to destroy European economies as well. Although no one on the left will admit it, we
desperately need to return to a culture of life, a culture that promotes
marriage, childbirth, and families. We
also need to accept responsibility for our spending, and learn to live within
our means, rather than heaping mountains of debt on our children and
grandchildren. This is the path to
recovery, the path to growth and prosperity. It
involves personal responsibility and a return to the commitments and virtues
required to be good parents and citizens who take responsibility for themselves
and their family.
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